Confused

OK. Now I'm all confused.

Why?

Well, because I have no idea how to run my marathon.

I say this because I ran my 20 miler this weekend. I was going to do 2-4 miles at a 10 minute pace, then gradually wind myself down to a 9 minute mile pace and do maybe the last 2 miles at sub 9s. This sounded reasonable to me because I had done my half marathon last week at an 8:40 pace which felt really very doable.

Of course it was raining. I say "of course" because I think it has rained during all of my 20 milers except one. So let's just say, I am very used to running 20s in the rain. :) I actually don't mind either, because it beats the heat any day.

I got up at 6:15, ran to Central Park, down to 86th Street, turned around and went up to the 102nd Street Transverse. It was here that I dropped off my bag, and lined up with the other NYRR for the "Tune-Up" 18-miler training run. It was funny because they set it up like a race (we all had numbers, got t-shirts, had shoe tags, there was Gatorade and water and pace clocks) but it was really just a big training run. The big perk was that it counted as a qualifier for my 9+1 requirement for NYC 2010. Yes, that's right! I ran 2 qualifiers this weekend which means I have my 9 in the bag. All I need now is my volunteer day, which I have already signed up for.

My first 2 miles averaged 9:45. Perfect!

When I started the run, I saw my friend from TNT Molly right ahead of me. I was so glad, because I figured we would be able to keep a good pace together. This was especially good for me because I tend to do backwards negative splits, and I really needed to hold back on that first half of my run.

It was great though, because running with Molly took my mind off of the run, since we were talking the whole time. I wasn't obsessing over the mile markers, or really my splits for that matter. I guess it was a good thing, because with all of the rain it was pretty impossible to decipher what my splits were anyway.

I felt REALLY good, the whole time.

In fact, when I lost Molly at about mile 11 (she told me to go ahead, she had hit a wall and needed to slow down) I did my next mile at 9:04 (we had been averaging about 9:40s the whole time). But then I took it right back down. I guess I was just all about running comfortably. And it was comfortable.

I mean, of course, my legs were screaming at me towards the end, but that's just what happens in a 20 mile run. I actually felt pretty great.

I ended up with a 3:12.30 for those 20 miles, which averages to a 9:37 pace.

Not helpful.

Here's why...

Originally, at the beginning of the season I was killing practices. Coach Christine said she thought I could do a 3:40 marathon. I talked to the other coaches and they said if Coach Christine said it, then it was totally doable, because she tends to be conservative with her estimates. THEN I started racing, and realized a more attainable goal for me was probably to break the 4 hour mark. To do this, I would have to run a 9:09 pace. I considered this totally and completely doable.

Now, I'm not so sure.

If history (of my 20 milers before a marathon) is any indication, this run means that I will do about a 4:11-4:13 marathon.

On one hand, it's nice to know that this is a realistic goal going into the marathon. But on the other hand I am kind of bummed. I mean, I went from thinking I could do a 3:40 to coming to the realization that it will probably be more like a 4:11?

That was my "hopeful" goal for last year!!! And I am so much faster now!

But I am always one who is like "Yeah, it was a PR, but I was REALLY hoping for..." I mean, the only race I can think of that I was super happy with was the Bronx half marathon this February.

ARGH! All of this thinking is making me crazy! I know the game plan should be to calm down and not worry about it, because that is what always makes me run "off" but seriously? That is like telling a super stressed person not to stress out...all that does is make them stress out more! :)

The GOOD thing out of all of this was that I maintained a very consistent pace through the whole thing.
(9:45, 9:45, 10:03, 9:58, 9:24, 9:25, 9:31, 9:41, 9:38, 9:34, 9:22, 9:38, 9:49, 9:04, 9:35, 9:24, 9:29, 9:46, 9:39, 9:07). At least I am learning SOMEthing!

(BTW, today is the last day for donations to my run and I'm still short! If anyone wants to donate, they can, at runemily.com!)