It has been quite a busy week! I completed my last speed work session right to the letter, had a nice little 5 mile run on Saturday, with an average pace of 9:38, and got the course overview from Ramon.
Based on Ramon's course assessment, and running all of his numbers based on this course, he came up with three goal times for me.
If absolutely EVERYTHING goes right (including things I cannot control, like weather) I can hope for a time in the 4:03 - 4:05 range. He calls this my "aggressive" time goal.
My "achievable" time goal is 4:06-4:10.
My "conservative" time goal is 4:10-4:13.
Bummer. So close to breaking the 4:00 time wall. Now I am at a real Catch-22, here. Knowing my history of predicting my finishing times, I should be looking at a 4:13 PLUS according to this. HOWEVER, I have learned a TON about racing in this past season...which makes me think that the 4:03-4:05 is actually acheivable and what I should be shooting for. In my mind? I am still breaking the 4:00 mark. This either:
A) Sets me up for huge disappointment, when I don't get it, but actually run a really good race and PR
B) Makes me work harder for it and I smash the goal
C) Makes me work harder for it, which makes me run the race stupidly, which makes me not get it
This is why the mental game is so important...almost as important as the physical part of training.
I also know of some "trouble spots" on the course.
Mile 6 is supposedly the largest hill, lasting 0.9 miles. Ramon said that we are fine on the uphill since we trained so hard on hills this season. The worrisome part is the downhill. Many races are lost this way (by taking the downhill too fast). I am actually not worried about this at all. I run my downhills a little conservatively with my feet under me because so many people have scared me into thinking I am going to "hammer my quads" and not be able to finish in all of my races.
The other trouble spot I'm looking out for?
From mile 19-23.5. Here is where you make a nice little loop around a pond. Coach Steve called it the "attitude changer". He was right at the entrance last year so he could see all of his runners coming in and going out and he said the difference was incredible. Pretty much smiling and happy at the entrance to even the most "proper" runners dropping multiple f-bombs at the end of the loop. Plus, there are the tiniest of hills in here. Not a big deal if it was the beginning of the race, but a huge deal at the end.
Knowing my past races, I expect this to be a huge trouble spot for me.
The third spot is right out of the park. Here, you are running along the oceanside for the last miles. It is flat and the scenery doesn't change, and there's little crowd support. Ugh. Why do all marathons do this? It is like the worst mental test!
Ramon says the key to breaking the big 4, is to be nice, conservative and disciplined during the first 10 miles. (Yeah, this pretty much goes against how I race.) On the flat parts, I should be aiming for a 9:20 pace to mile 6. (On the hills I shouldn't care about pace, but maintain effort.) From mile 10-17 I can bring it up to a 9:10 pace. If I feel okay at this point, I can speed it up and get closer to a 9 min mile pace.
According to Ramon, it's all decided at mile 17.
If I was "good" I will break the 4 hours. If I "misbehaved" I will not break it.
WHEW!
Lots of pressure.
He also has check points for me.
Mile 5: 45:30-48:30
Mile 10: 1:32-1:34
Mile 15: 2:16-2:21
Mile 20: 3:02-3:05
Information overload. Yes, now I AM freaking out.
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3 comments:
A ton of information but isn't it better than going in blind and getting a bunch of suprises?? You will do great, looks like Ramon is a great coach/mentor for you!
I'm excited for you! The speed you have gained since your first marathon is awesome! Can't wait to hear all about it!
Go you. You can definitely hit that A goal if you run S-M-R-T! Weather looks a leeetle warm so factor that in, too! Have an awesome race--there will be a whole New York contingent back here cheering for you.
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